The why behind the numbers.
Touchdown Theory is a research tool for the NFL. It projects games and players and shows how every number is built, from the team matchup and pace to player usage and the environment the game is played in. Research, not picks.
Game projections
Not live yetWeek 3, 16 games. Each shows the model's win probability for the home team beside the market's, with the market's margin removed. The largest disagreements are first.
Odds & Probability
Not live yetProbability first, with the fair odds alongside it, placed next to what the market is offering.
Odds ScreenMarket lines across the slate, and where they were first recorded when they have moved. Fair odds arrive with the projections.→Research tools
The model
The league in 2025
All 32 teams→Net rating is a team's per-play quality on both sides of the ball, measured across the season. Positive is above league average.
Where the games are played
All venues→The environment is a measured part of every projection, not a footnote. These are the conditions the model reads across the league's home venues.